Fiscal Impact Update
Q3 2021 Advanced Estimate
Manuel Alcala Kovalski
2021-11-24
| BEA Revisions on Purchases | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| name | current | previous | diff | diff_pct |
| 2020 Q1 | ||||
| Federal Purchases Nipa | $1,454.70 | $1,454.70 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| State Purchases Nipa | $2,376.90 | $2,376.90 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Consumption Grants | $212.48 | $212.48 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Investment Grants | $72.77 | $72.77 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2020 Q2 | ||||
| Federal Purchases Nipa | $1,525.00 | $1,525.00 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| State Purchases Nipa | $2,334.60 | $2,334.60 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Consumption Grants | $897.51 | $897.51 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Investment Grants | $75.28 | $75.28 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2020 Q3 | ||||
| Federal Purchases Nipa | $1,515.10 | $1,515.10 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| State Purchases Nipa | $2,346.50 | $2,346.50 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Consumption Grants | $256.78 | $256.78 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Investment Grants | $78.77 | $78.77 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2020 Q4 | ||||
| Federal Purchases Nipa | $1,512.30 | $1,512.30 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| State Purchases Nipa | $2,373.00 | $2,373.00 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Consumption Grants | $235.16 | $235.16 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Investment Grants | $77.00 | $77.00 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2021 Q1 | ||||
| Federal Purchases Nipa | $1,568.60 | $1,568.60 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| State Purchases Nipa | $2,408.70 | $2,408.70 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Consumption Grants | $270.15 | $270.15 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Investment Grants | $75.03 | $75.03 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2021 Q2 | ||||
| Federal Purchases Nipa | $1,563.30 | $1,563.30 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| State Purchases Nipa | $2,452.60 | $2,452.60 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Consumption Grants | $1,111.47 | $1,111.47 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Investment Grants | $77.70 | $77.70 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2021 Q3 | ||||
| Federal Purchases Nipa | $1,562.00 | $1,562.10 | −$0.10 | −0.01% |
| State Purchases Nipa | $2,521.70 | $2,514.90 | $6.80 | 0.27% |
| Consumption Grants | $526.28 | NA | NA | NA |
| Investment Grants | $72.77 | $72.77 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| FIM Components Summary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| category | current | previous | difference | |
| 2020 Q1 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.00% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | 0.07% | 0.07% | −0.00% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.07% | −0.07% | −0.00% |
| federal | Transfers | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.00% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.23% | 0.23% | 0.00% |
| state | Taxes | −0.01% | −0.01% | 0.00% |
| state | Transfers | −0.01% | −0.01% | −0.00% |
| 2020 Q2 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | 13.90% | 13.90% | 0.00% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | 3.49% | 3.49% | −0.00% |
| federal | Taxes | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.00% |
| federal | Transfers | 11.81% | 11.81% | 0.00% |
| state | Purchases FIM | −3.14% | −3.14% | 0.00% |
| state | Taxes | 0.06% | 0.06% | −0.00% |
| state | Transfers | 1.14% | 1.14% | −0.00% |
| 2020 Q3 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | 3.53% | 3.53% | −0.00% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −1.25% | −1.25% | −0.00% |
| federal | Taxes | 0.37% | 0.37% | −0.00% |
| federal | Transfers | 3.70% | 3.70% | −0.00% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.48% | 0.48% | 0.00% |
| state | Taxes | −0.02% | −0.02% | −0.00% |
| state | Transfers | 0.26% | 0.26% | −0.00% |
| 2020 Q4 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −3.61% | −3.61% | −0.00% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.89% | −0.89% | 0.00% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.19% | −0.19% | −0.00% |
| federal | Transfers | −1.85% | −1.85% | −0.00% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.47% | 0.47% | 0.00% |
| state | Taxes | −0.09% | −0.09% | −0.00% |
| state | Transfers | −1.07% | −1.07% | 0.00% |
| 2021 Q1 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | 7.59% | 7.59% | 0.00% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | 1.03% | 1.03% | 0.00% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.29% | −0.29% | −0.00% |
| federal | Transfers | 7.58% | 7.58% | 0.00% |
| state | Purchases FIM | −0.61% | −0.61% | −0.00% |
| state | Taxes | −0.07% | −0.07% | 0.00% |
| state | Transfers | −0.06% | −0.06% | −0.00% |
| 2021 Q2 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −2.30% | −2.24% | −0.07% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | 0.02% | 0.02% | −0.00% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.36% | −0.30% | −0.07% |
| federal | Transfers | −1.09% | −1.09% | 0.00% |
| state | Purchases FIM | −0.74% | −0.74% | 0.00% |
| state | Taxes | −0.09% | −0.09% | −0.00% |
| state | Transfers | −0.04% | −0.04% | −0.00% |
| 2021 Q3 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −2.29% | −2.39% | 0.10% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.06% | −0.04% | −0.03% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.33% | −0.24% | −0.09% |
| federal | Transfers | −1.59% | −1.57% | −0.02% |
| state | Purchases FIM | −0.13% | −0.18% | 0.05% |
| state | Taxes | −0.09% | −0.10% | 0.01% |
| state | Transfers | −0.08% | −0.26% | 0.19% |
| 2021 Q4 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −1.66% | −1.99% | 0.32% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.25% | −0.21% | −0.04% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.34% | −0.21% | −0.13% |
| federal | Transfers | −1.98% | −2.18% | 0.20% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.76% | 0.65% | 0.11% |
| state | Taxes | −0.07% | −0.07% | 0.00% |
| state | Transfers | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.18% |
| 2022 Q1 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −1.84% | −1.95% | 0.11% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.21% | −0.10% | −0.11% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.38% | −0.11% | −0.27% |
| federal | Transfers | −1.69% | −1.94% | 0.25% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.51% | 0.41% | 0.11% |
| state | Taxes | −0.06% | −0.07% | 0.01% |
| state | Transfers | −0.02% | −0.14% | 0.12% |
| 2022 Q2 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −3.26% | −3.31% | 0.05% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.09% | 0.02% | −0.11% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.69% | −0.38% | −0.31% |
| federal | Transfers | −2.26% | −2.50% | 0.24% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.11% | 0.00% | 0.11% |
| state | Taxes | −0.14% | −0.14% | 0.00% |
| state | Transfers | −0.20% | −0.32% | 0.12% |
| 2022 Q3 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −2.86% | −2.76% | −0.10% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.20% | −0.09% | −0.11% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.63% | −0.33% | −0.30% |
| federal | Transfers | −1.93% | −2.24% | 0.32% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.07% | −0.04% | 0.11% |
| state | Taxes | −0.10% | −0.10% | 0.00% |
| state | Transfers | −0.07% | 0.04% | −0.12% |
| 2022 Q4 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −2.23% | −2.29% | 0.05% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.07% | −0.04% | −0.03% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.41% | −0.22% | −0.19% |
| federal | Transfers | −1.48% | −1.78% | 0.30% |
| state | Purchases FIM | −0.11% | −0.22% | 0.11% |
| state | Taxes | −0.10% | −0.10% | 0.00% |
| state | Transfers | −0.06% | 0.08% | −0.13% |
| 2023 Q1 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −1.86% | −1.88% | 0.02% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.10% | 0.02% | −0.12% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.22% | −0.12% | −0.10% |
| federal | Transfers | −1.39% | −1.59% | 0.21% |
| state | Purchases FIM | −0.15% | −0.26% | 0.12% |
| state | Taxes | −0.08% | −0.08% | 0.00% |
| state | Transfers | 0.07% | 0.16% | −0.09% |
| 2023 Q2 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −2.98% | −3.00% | 0.02% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.52% | −0.40% | −0.12% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.12% | −0.08% | −0.05% |
| federal | Transfers | −2.65% | −2.83% | 0.17% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.31% | 0.19% | 0.12% |
| state | Taxes | −0.04% | −0.04% | 0.00% |
| state | Transfers | 0.05% | 0.16% | −0.11% |
| 2023 Q3 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −1.22% | −1.23% | 0.01% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.27% | −0.14% | −0.12% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.04% | −0.03% | −0.01% |
| federal | Transfers | −0.88% | −0.96% | 0.08% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.07% | −0.05% | 0.12% |
| state | Taxes | −0.03% | −0.03% | 0.01% |
| state | Transfers | −0.09% | −0.03% | −0.06% |
| 2023 Q4 | ||||
| total | Fiscal Impact | −0.64% | −0.51% | −0.12% |
| federal | Purchases FIM | −0.10% | −0.03% | −0.07% |
| federal | Taxes | −0.03% | 0.00% | −0.03% |
| federal | Transfers | −0.41% | −0.33% | −0.08% |
| state | Purchases FIM | 0.00% | −0.13% | 0.13% |
| state | Taxes | −0.03% | −0.03% | −0.00% |
| state | Transfers | −0.06% | 0.01% | −0.07% |
NIPA Consistent Purchases
Contributions
Levels
Grants
Likewise, consumption grants are higher now given that we reattributed some of the ARP grants away from federal purchases.
Contributions
Levels
FIM Consistent Purchases
Contributions
Taxes
Corporate taxes
Contributions
Levels
Non-corporate taxes
Contributions
Levels
Transfers
Total
Contributions
Health Outlays
Contributions
Levels
Components
Subsidies (non-ARP)
Contributions
Levels
Subsidies (ARP)
ARP PPP and Provider Relief Fund
Contribution
Levels
Unemployment Insurance
Contributions
Levels
Other aid to vulnerable households
Premium Tax Credits, Ratepayer protection, Assistance for older Americans, COBRA, Emergency Assistance
Contribution
Level
Rebate Checks (1st and 2nd round)
Contribution
Level
Rebate Checks (ARP)
Last time, we forgot to include the rebate checks from ARP that will go out in the next tax year.
Contribution
Level
Direct aid to households
Includes Child tax credit, EITC, Childcare for workers, Dependent care for families
Contribution
Level
Deflators
Delta
Current
Previous
Social Benefits Remainder
Level and impact of social benefits net of health outlays, rebate checks, and unemployment insurance.
The social benefits remainder came in 3.6 billion lower than we had last time. Almost half of this is due to Federal UI which came in 1.63 billion lower.
Contribution
Level